Optimism Bias Illustration with Rocky Movie Franchise 🥊
Optimism bias is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events occurring in the future and underestimate the likelihood of negative life events. Such biased expectations are generated and maintained in the face of counter-evidence through a tendency to discount undesirable information. An optimism bias can alter risk perception and decision-making in many domains, ranging from finance to health.
Optimism bias can be demonstrated using the Rocky movie franchise. In Rocky 3, Rocky’s decision to fight led to a series of life-altering events ranging from finance to health.
Let’s recap the movies starting Rocky 1 all the way up to Rocky 5 and examine what had actually happened in comparison to what could have happened if only Rocky had decided not to fight.
(In case you haven’t watched the movies, it is recommended to watch them before continuing to read this)
ROCKY I
- Rocky is poor
- Rocky falls in love with Adrian (Talia Shire)
- Rocky fights Apollo (Carl Weathers) for the heavyweight championship
ROCKY II
- Rocky is still poor
- Rocky marries Adrian
- Rocky wins against Apollo for the heavyweight championship
Now, this is where we split into two timelines as Rocky’s life takes a turn in Rocky 3.
What Actually Happened
ROCKY III
- Rocky is now rich and doesn’t need to fight for a living
- Rocky once publicly provoked, decides to fight against Clubber Lang (Mr. T) after winning all his fights during the last 5 years
- A few minutes before the fight, his beloved trainer (coach) Mik (Burgess Meredith) collapses and dies
- Rocky loses the championship belt to Clubber Lang
- Rocky’s past opponent Apollo Creed decides to encourage and train Rocky for a rematch (eye of the tiger). They become friends
- Rocky beats Clubber Lang in a rematch and regain the championship title
All well ends well? not exactly. Mik’s premature death could have been avoided.
ROCKY IV
- Apollo decides to fight against a Russian champion named Drago (Dolph Lundgren) and asks Rocky to become his trainer
- Apollo dies during an exhibition fight against Drago
- Rocky fly to Russia to train before his fight against Drago
- Rocky beats Drago (everybody can change)
All well ends well? not exactly. Apollo’s premature death could have been avoided.
ROCKY V
- Rocky is back in the USA only to discover his brother-in-law Paulie (Burt Young) lost all of Rocky’s money
- Rocky is now poor
- Due to his last match against Drago, Rocky now has neurological damage
- Rocky is living in a bad neighborhood and his son is being bullied and having a hard time in school
- Rocky takes a young and talented fighter under his wing training him for the heavyweight title
- Rocky betrayed by his protege, ends up winning a street fight against him (only in America)
All well ends well? not exactly. Rocky is poor and his family is having a hard time.
What Could Have Happened
If only Rocky had stepped down in Rocky 3 and enjoyed a quiet retirement the following could have been avoided:
- Mik would have lived longer (instead of dying a few minutes before the fight)
- Apollo wouldn’t have died (Rocky would have never become friends with Apollo and as a result wouldn’t have encouraged Apollo)
- Rocky wouldn’t have lost all his money (Rocky would have gone to Russia and left Paulie in charge only to lose all of his money)
- Rocky wouldn’t have neurological damage (Rocky would never fight Drago to avenge Apollo’s death)
- Rocky’s family wouldn’t have had a hard time being poor (Rocky would never become poor)
But hey! we wouldn’t have 3 additional Rocky movies.
Final Thoughts
“Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain’t all sunshine and rainbows. It’s a very mean and nasty place and I don’t care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain’t about how hard ya hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! Now if you know what you’re worth then go out and get what you’re worth. But ya gotta be willing to take the hits, and not pointing fingers saying you ain’t where you wanna be because of him, or her, or anybody! Cowards do that and that ain’t you! You’re better than that! I’m always gonna love you no matter what. No matter what happens. You’re my son and you’re my blood. You’re the best thing in my life. But until you start believing in yourself, ya ain’t gonna have a life.“
